Spot silicon metal prices remain low and stagnant, with weak market sentiment in polysilicon and wafer markets [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM June 25 News:

Silicon Coal

Prices: This week, silicon coal prices have been in the doldrums. On one hand, it is mainly supported by the stable spot prices of coking coal. On the other hand, the current quotes for silicon coal in various regions have approached the cost line, limiting the room for manufacturers to offer discounts. However, if coking coal futures continue to perform well subsequently, it will drive up the expectations for coking coal spot prices, thereby further boosting the price expectations for silicon coal. Currently, the average price of non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang is 710 yuan/mt, the average price of caking silicon coal in Xinjiang is 1,250 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu is 840 yuan/mt, the average price of granular coal is 960 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Ningxia is 900 yuan/mt, and the price of granular coal is 1,140 yuan/mt.

Supply: On the supply side, as one of the by-products of coking coal, silicon coal accounts for a relatively low proportion for coal mills. Production is mainly scheduled based on order quantities, with no inventory pressure and limited supply elasticity.

Demand: The demand from silicon plants and steel mills remains weak, with purchases mainly maintaining small-order rigid restocking.

Silicon Metal

Prices: The spot prices of silicon metal have remained stable. Yesterday, SMM's oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was priced at 8,000-8,300 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of the most-traded contract closed at 7,485 yuan/mt yesterday, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous working day. The spot-futures price spread for #553 silicon in east China was basically stable at around 650 yuan/mt, with the spot price of silicon metal remaining stagnant.

Production:

In June, major silicon metal plants have gradually increased production and there have been marginal increases in the southwest region, leading to an increase in silicon metal production MoM from May.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 559,000 mt on June 19, down 13,000 mt WoW. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 131,000 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 428,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot parts), down 11,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.). Warrants in the futures market continued to be liquidated. According to GFEX data, the total number of silicon metal warrants was 53,570 lots yesterday, down 614 lots from the previous day. The industry's reported inventory decreased while unreported inventory increased.

Silicone

Prices

DMC: The current quote is 10,200-10,600 yuan/mt. This week, the transaction center of DMC in domestic market has moved downward, but yesterday, the DMC quote of a monomer enterprise in Shandong province slightly increased, and the industry's inventory level slightly decreased after hitting a low price.

D4: The current quote is 11,100-12,000 yuan/mt. This week, the price of D4 has remained stable.

107 Silicone Rubber: The current quote is 11,400-12,000 yuan/mt. This week, the transaction price of 107 silicone rubber has fallen, and it is expected to continue to decline due to weak demand subsequently.

Raw Rubber: Current quotes range from 12,100 yuan/mt to 12,600 yuan/mt. This week, the center of gravity for raw rubber transaction prices has shifted downward.

Silicone Oil: Current quotes range from 13,000 yuan/mt to 13,800 yuan/mt. This week, silicone oil prices have pulled back WoW, and market demand has also seen a decline.

Production:

Recently, monomer enterprises have maintained a relatively high operating rate, with the industry's operating rate rising to nearly 70%.

Inventory:

This week, the inventory pressure on monomer enterprises has eased compared to the previous period, but overall, it remains at a slightly high level.

Polysilicon

Price

Yesterday, the mainstream transaction prices for N-type recharging polysilicon were 34-36 yuan/kg, and the N-type polysilicon price index was 34 yuan/kg. Currently, there is still some market negotiation, and overall market sentiment is weak. This is mainly influenced by supply and demand in July, as well as downstream demand sentiment.

Production

The final production schedule for June did not change significantly from previous expectations. In July, some small factories have announced production cuts, while the operating rates of a few large factories have not yet been finalised. Therefore, there is still some uncertainty regarding production.

Inventory

Polysilicon inventory still faces significant pressure, with large disparities among enterprises. Overall inventory has declined slightly due to order signing in the previous two weeks.

Wafer

Price

The market prices for N-type 18X wafers range from 0.88-0.9 yuan/piece, and for N-type 210RN wafers, they range from 1.03-1.1 yuan/piece. Wafer prices have remained largely stable, with no significant changes observed yesterday. However, the overall market sentiment is bearish for the future.

Production

It is estimated that global wafer production will be around 58GW in June, and some enterprises have already made preliminary plans to reduce their production schedules in July.

Inventory

Recently, market transactions have remained limited, and procurement sentiment is cautious. Wafer inventory has remained largely stable.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, the domestic prices for inner-layer sand range from 60,000-68,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand from 31,000-42,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand from 17,000-24,000 yuan/mt. This week, domestic quartz sand prices have remained stable. Demand for wafers in Q3 is still weak, and the procurement volume of quartz sand is expected to decrease, with prices mainly expected to decline.

Production

This week, the operating rate for quartz sand has increased slightly, with some domestic third-tier enterprises slightly increasing their production due to an increase in quartzite supply.

Inventory

This week, the inventory of sand enterprises has remained stable, with imported sand inventory maintained at around a four-month supply.

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